The answers to specific questions two and three are simple intuition, unless, of course, you have subject knowledge. The piano is tuned about once a year and takes about two hours. The answer to the fourth question can be based on your own experience or on average employment rates when working five days a week with standard holidays.Thus, if you assume that there are a total of 50,000 pianos in Chicago that need to be tuned once a year, and this process takes two hours for each, then this means 100,000 hours of tuning. Divide this by 1600 hours worked on average per year of tuning, and you get the figure of 62.5 piano tuners in the city. Try for the best conclusion.

The Answers for You

There is no definite answer, how many of them are in fact, although the analysis of the “yellow pages” directory showed the number 83, so since we were somewhere between 55 and 70, this can be considered fairly close to the exact result.

You should not attach too much importance to the accuracy of our answer in the considered example: the approach we have chosen is much more important. Such thinking promotes accurate forecasting in the absence of data, like betting on a Mayweather fight against McGregor.

“Super Predictors”

The Fermi method is considered in the study “Superprediction: the art and science of forecasting,” an excellent book by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. The book examines the development of the science of forecasting, using the “Healthy Assessment” (GJP) project as a background.

  • For four years, Tetlock invited the “20,000 intellectually curious laymen” to join his project and predict the results of a wide variety of geopolitical puzzles. His team was part of a broader Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (US intelligence agency) initiative aimed at improving the standards for their forecasts of critical political and economic events that directly affect national interests.
  • IARPA has created a forecasting tournament featuring five teams led by leading scientists in the field, including GJP and its amateurs. Over the course of five years, IARPA posed about five hundred questions, with the answers required to be sent every day at the same time.

The accuracy of the forecasts was measured using Brier indicators. Estimation of forecasts was made by summing up the difference between the degree of confidence of forecasts and the actual result (squared). The requirement that a forecast must be made indicating your confidence in it involves equally reward or punishment for that confidence and is a great way to correctly recognize tipsters.


Bookmakers do not make predictions; they simply offer a measure of the probability that something will happen, presented in the form of coefficients. In this regard, Pinnacle BC is on safer soil with established sports that follow a fixed set of rules and have good reliable and affordable historical data.Then, based on the existing knowledge of the incident, we can build models and get a proper idea of ​​the probability of future results, presented in the form of initial coefficients.